Unknown unknowns describe situations that we not predicted or believed possible by an individual, team or organization at a given point in time. As an individual or team's cumulative knowledge expands, the horizon for unknown unknowns shifts. Essentially, it establishes that decisions can only be arrived at using information currently available. This poses potentially significant unknown risks or hazards to a project. By definition, any outcome that can be conceived of will usually be incorporated into the decision makers frame of reference. What constitutes an unknown unknown is highly dependent on both a time and the perspective of the observer. To see this in real life (and almost real time), we only have to visit the time line for the Mars Phoenix Lander. The impact of unknown unknowns (made famous by Donald Rumsfeld) can be attested by the project team managing the Mars Phoenix Lander:
June 8: NASA's Phoenix Mars Lander gently drops a sample of Martian soil for analysis onto its laboratory instrument. Project team discovers to their horror that the Martian soil is clumpy and has clogged the protective screen on the Thermal and Evolved-Gas Analyzer (TEGA)! TEGA has 8 ovens, each the width of a pencil lead. Each oven is equipped with a screen to stop lumps of soil clogging the narrow chute down to the oven. "There's something very special very unusual about this soil," opinions University of Arizona's Principal Investigator Peter Smith in a neat summary of the bleeding obvious. "We're interested in learning what sort of chemical and mineral activity has caused the particles to clump." Right!
June 9: Mechanical shakers inside the Thermal and Evolved-Gas Analyzer attempt to breakup the Martial soil sample trapped on TEGA's screen by vibrating it for 20 minutes. Programmers map the underside of the Lander and discover the descent thrusters have cleared the soil from a patch of rock or ice. Project team name the site "Snow Queen" mainly to confuse normal humans! Programme robotic arm to dig another sample trench named "Baby Bear". Where do they get their inspiration?
June 10: Engineers devise a new and very, very cunning plan to drop soil samples into the Thermal and Evolved-Gas Analyzer. This involves holding the mechanical arm at an angle to the screen while the sample is vibrated over the screen, hopefully sprinkling a light sample onto the screen and on down the chute.
June 11: The oven on NASA's Phoenix Mars Lander mysteriously fills with soil. The oven took 10 seconds to fill once sample eventually shifted after sitting on the screen for 4 days! Scientists have no idea why but as usual are fully equipped to speculate and don't stop to question gift horse. Proceed with plans to sprinkle a soil sample on the Optical Microscope for study and to widen the area photographed by the Lander's high resolution colour panorama camera Programmers adopt a determined look.
June 13: Joy! The robotic arm delivers a light dusting of soil over the Optical Microscope. This sample is called "Mama Bear", the sample delivered to TEGA's #4 oven is "Baby Bear" and both samples came from a trench named "Goldilocks". Observers conclude project team needs to get out more! Fuelled by their triumph, the team plan to command the robotic arm to dig deeper into "Goldilocks" and another trench "Dodo" to see how deep the underlying layer of rock or ice is.
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/phoenix/news/phoenix-20080607.html http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/phoenix/news/phoenix-20080608.html http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/phoenix/news/phoenix-20080609.html http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/phoenix/news/phoenix-20080611.html http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/phoenix/news/phoenix-20080612.html Image: 1. Robotic arm of NASA's Phoenix Mars Lander drops soil sample into screen, NASA/JPL-Caltech/University of Arizona/Max Planck Institute, 2. Image of landing site, NASA/JPL-Caltech/University of Arizona, 3. Trenches dug by Phoenix's robotic arm, NASA/JPL-Caltech/University of Arizona, Texas A&M University, 4. Robotic arm with soil sample poised, NASA/JPL-Caltech/University of Arizona, Texas A&M University.